8 minmethodologytransparencysignals
The half-life of a signal: why "WTI ↑5% over 14d" doesn't mean the same thing on day 1 and day 12
A financial signal isn't a frozen object. Its informational value decays over time like a radioactive isotope. Here's how we imported the half-life concept from physics to make our signals honest — and why your Kelly allocation should follow.
7 minmethodologycomposite-indexvix
Anatomy of the GeoPulse composite index: how to summarise the markets in a single 0–100 score
Behind the dashboard's main gauge, five aggregated sub-scores. VIX, yield curve, fear & greed, geopolitics, momentum — exactly what we measure, why, and how to tune it to your style.
6 minmethodologytransparencyai
Anatomy of a failed signal: what AI taught us from 4 botched WTI calls in a row
Four different rules predicted oil up during the Iran crisis. The market dropped -8%. We asked Mistral Large to dissect each error, and the pattern that emerged changes how we build our signals.
5 minormuzgoldbitcoin
Oil, gold, Bitcoin: who actually benefits from the Ormuz crisis?
The Ormuz crisis doesn't only produce losers. Oil soaring, gold paradoxically falling, Bitcoin in free fall — analysis of the winners and losers across financial markets.
4 minormuzoiliran
The Ormuz Crisis: how it's hitting your investments in real time
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz isn't just about oil. Fertilisers, helium, aluminium — a cascade analysis of what's rippling through financial markets and your portfolio.